Anticipating Demand for Non-profit Services

In last month’s post, we talked about the meaning of “Strategic Planning,” proposing five “key phrases” to help define a term that can be challenging for leaders in every sector to work with. We used these phrases—longer-term horizon, big picture perspective, logical construction, outcome orientation, and flexibility to change—to suggest an approach to undertaking Strategic Planning initiatives in non-profit organizations. We noted that within this Anticipate, Plan, Act, and Adapt framework, “planning” is only one component of a more extensive effort, one that is responsive, actionable, and dynamic as things change. When we left off, we promised to get into the details, so let’s start with the Anticipate phase.

For Strategic Planning to be effective, non-profits—like all other organizations—need to know why they’re needed to begin with. The answer may seem relatively straightforward, e.g., “we’re here to make sure the un- and under-insured can get comprehensive health care.” It’s appropriate, however, to dig beneath the surface and find out exactly what that means going forward. That is, organizations have to know the particulars of the “target population(s)” and the surrounding environment. Correctly anticipating needs given factors such as client demographics, community resources, regulatory conditions, etc. is essential to meeting demand for non-profit services.

It’s therefore important to do some investigation into the “market,” so initial research and analysis is an important part in our Strategic Planning framework. Anticipating demand requires understanding and interpreting the combined effects of three main factors:

• Concerns—Considering mission-related community issues is essential to effectively respond to—and even affect—demand. Recognizing needs helps define which services to emphasize going forward. At a minimum, common concerns within population segments are important to know, so that accurately focused solutions can be identified.

• Conditions—“Market” forces such as demographics, economics, legislation, etc. will impact the dynamics of community demand. For example, non-profits should be aware of:

• Trends in population age groups, geographic movement, etc.
  
• Economic factors impacting the number of potential clients
  
• Nature and effects of potential regulatory changes on the population
  
• Other community sources of services provided to the same groups
  

• Characteristics—Finally, non-profits need to know the target population(s) beyond just their immediate concerns. Attributes such as personal preferences and accessibility impacts everything from viability of methods to patients’ ability to get information. Effectiveness of different delivery approaches, marketing, etc. depend on segment traits.
  

These factors need to be analyzed collectively to accurately understand needs—looking at only one is insufficient. To use a rudimentary example, while geographic trends may suggest the use of virtual services, they won’t work if the client base doesn’t have the means to access them.

As mentioned in the previous post, the Anticipate phase of our Strategic Planning framework ensures non-profits stay “on the curve”—even ahead of it—so they can effectively adjust what they’re doing now to deliver the services the community needs, in appropriate ways. Anticipation doesn’t necessarily provide the answers to how to respond to population demand, but it’s a crucial input to the Plan phase, the next element of our approach. After all, non-profits that comprehensively understand what they are responding to are much better prepared to come up with the right answers—solutions tailored to community concerns, “market” conditions, and client characteristics.

All well and good, but how do organizations go about getting the information they need to accurately anticipate what the next several years will look like? There are several ways to obtain what’s needed to create a realistic image of the future, even if there are uncertainties. These include, for example:

• Data Analysis—There is often good data publicly available from municipalities, counties, etc. that provide insights into current demographics and trends over time, which may be used to understand the makeup of the area and identify likely changes that may affect services.
  

• Community Assessments—While costly and complex, needs assessments can highlight key existing and emerging issues. Localities and other local organizations may conduct these on a regular basis, so non-profits don’t necessarily have to drive these types of efforts.

• Front-line Observations—Client data collected by non-profits is a good source for demographics, needs, and attributes. Also, simply listening to staff members and volunteers can be quite useful in understanding the current population, and even how it is changing.

• Client Surveys—Asking clients about themselves can be a great way to augment data that non-profits collect. Surveys provide more detail about needs, preferences, accessibility, and other characteristics that can help build profiles and increase understanding of the population.

• Expert Opinions—Local subject matter expert (SME) perspectives augment or, if necessary, are good proxies for, needs assessments. SMEs in the mission area, local government, etc. see what’s going on in the community, and have a good idea of potential future challenges.

• Legislative Monitoring—Staying current with local and higher-level policies and initiatives is key. Boards should have a way to monitor local politics, and non-profits may have related associations they can use to keep up-to-date on potential broader changes and impacts.

Taken together, the information gathered from these sources lay out what non-profits have to plan for—a pre-requisite to planning how to effectively serve relevant groups. When uncertainties come into play, modeling scenarios to see impacts on, for example, demographics may also be necessary.

Before we go for now, it’s worth noting that while the Anticipate phase may seem inordinately complicated and, by extension, expensive, it isn’t necessary to be perfect. Sure, it would be nice to jump head-first into data, but a workable picture of the “market” doesn’t require it. Non-profits just need to know enough, with sufficient confidence, to position themselves for responsive Planning. The methods above don’t have to be overly time-consuming or cost-prohibitive. In most cases, in fact, the sources of information are immediately accessible—they just have to ask the right questions of the right people. A good consultant can help with this, and pull it all together for further discussion.

Learn More

Once again, we’re out of room for this post. Next time we’ll cover the Planning phase of our Strategic Planning framework in detail. If really can’t wait, though (or if you have questions on the Anticipate phase), feel free to contact us at info@snowflakellc.com, and we’ll talk you through it.